Myanmar’s state of emergency has been extended for six months, announced Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Administration Council, on Jan. 31, 2025. The South-East Asian country now begins preparing for a general election. This is a critical turning point that can break the deadlock in the escalating bloody civil war. Ingo PEACE., an NGO focused on Myanmar’s future, sent reporters to cover the situation on the ground.
Countdown to Destruction
As recently as January, 2025, vehicles were being stopped on entering Yangon International Airport, where the authorities made sure no local young men were present. The regime’s conscription order means that men aged 18 to 35 are not allowed to leave the country. Under martial law, the city’s bustling streets are deserted by nightfall. The situation is a clear reminder that Myanmar is in a state of war, and the tension is palpable.
The world watched as the Tatmadaw military regime staged a coup on Feb. 1, 2021, citing voter fraud in the National League for Democracy (NLD)’s landslide victory in 2020 elections. On assuming power, the NLD had outlined a policy of eliminating the military, including the execution of its leaders. In response, the Tatmadaw attempted to initiate dialogue, but negotiations broke down and it seized back power by force in fear of an impending crisis. As the people resent being deprived of power and being subject to control, they took up arms and rebelled against the regime, leading to a state of civil war. Four years on, the conflict continues to ravage the country, with no end in sight. The economic situation is dire, and civilians are in deep distress. Some areas have reportedly fallen into anarchy and become breeding grounds for international crime.
“Myanmar is falling apart,” said a local political expert, stating that “the country will collapse at this rate.” Despite their daily hardships, more and more young people have acquired weapons. This paradox—risking their lives to survive—reveals the desperate national sentiment and abnormality of the situation.
The Future if the NLD Regains Power
The situation must improve immediately and the conflict must stop, this much is clear. A scenario in which the NLD defeats the military regime and regains power might seem like the most straightforward outcome.
However, history has shown that, when regimes are overthrown by force, a new reign of terror begins, another group rises against it, and fighting persists. This is a very plausible development. Moreover, we must not forget that both the regime and the opposition have been supported by competing foreign powers, making the conflict in Myanmar akin to a “proxy war.” Regardless of which side “wins,” there will be lasting repercussions in the international community.
Additionally, it is crucial to recognize that Myanmar is a multi-ethnic country with diverse cultural and linguistic groups. This civil war is no longer a simple anti-coup movement aimed at the restoration of the government and the removal of the military. It has become a complex issue intertwined with political demands, such as the autonomy and independence of ethnic minorities and the establishment of a federal system. If the centralized system continues, the discontent of minority groups will undoubtedly persist. Overthrowing the regime alone does not guarantee national stability.
The one thing all parties have in common is that they each seek happiness from their own perspective.
Myanmar’s True PEACE
We believe that a violent attack can never be justified, regardless of the reason.
Although it is not often reported outside the country, the regime has made public speeches declaring their efforts to ensure domestic stability and lay out a vision for development, while stating they are ready for dialogue. In February this year, they explicitly stated to us that they would peacefully transfer power to an elected government following elections. Each organization is fighting for its own sense of justice. Every claim is valid, but none are exclusive.
“A talented female employee has just quit,” said one dejected local business owner who is working with ingo PEACE. Her husband was conscripted shortly after they had married, so they decided to escape Myanmar together. People in the country say that 99% of those drafted never return.
Powerless ordinary citizens are caught up in the political turmoil and forced to make sacrifices. Is continuing the fight truly in the country’s best interest? Rather than people of the same country killing each other, would it not be a better choice for PEACE to create an environment where voices are heard, rights are respected, and people can live together?
However, the path to happiness for the country can only be determined by the people of the country.
A unique chance now lies before Myanmar to fundamentally reshape its future.
